The Aussie Dollar

Gav · #1 10-10-2008, 06:58 AM

Groovy - as I earn in AUD and support a couple of mortgages in GBP I've just had a 40% pay cut! Whoop! Happy days.

Or not.

Anyway, I've also decided that I should take my Dad to Thailand (yes, the place where riots have just broken out).

I go in 2 weeks... so without prejudice (ie I won't blame you if you're wrong) should I convert my AUD into USD...
Now

or

In two weeks?

Do you think the AUD is going to bounce back a bit or continue to fall then?

Marlnet · #2 10-10-2008, 07:34 AM

50-50 if we want to be coy...

From yesterday it seems the AU$ has gained a little - worth checking on xe.com throughout the day...

But I'm hoping it plummets for the next two weeks against the greenback, and then bounce back magnificently, but that's only because I have a payment coming to me in US$!!!...

Yes, Thailand - an interesting choice...

Paul

leadegroot · #3 10-10-2008, 07:57 AM

Yeah, I don't expect it to bounce back soon - the recent strength was the oddity.

If it was me I would do some now and some later.

(Although I am half hoping it will fall to around 50c around the 25th, so the end of month USD conversion is twice last months. Wouldn't be good for everyone else, though)

Jeremy · #4 10-10-2008, 12:41 PM

Try dollar cost averaging - convert half your cash now and half in 2 weeks.

That way, if it goes up or down, you've hedged your bets both ways...

Gav · #5 10-10-2008, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeremy

Try dollar cost averaging - convert half your cash now and half in 2 weeks.

That way, if it goes up or down, you've hedged your bets both ways...

I'm a bit of a gambler though - it can't possibly go down from here... can it?

leadegroot · #6 10-10-2008, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gav

I'm a bit of a gambler though - it can't possibly go down from here... can it?

Selfishly?

Oh, wow! I hope so!

Gav · #7 10-10-2008, 02:11 PM

And it has!

Jeremy · #8 10-10-2008, 02:17 PM

Do the opposite of what the stock brokers are currently doing...

Buy Buy Buy!!!

HarveyJ · #9 10-10-2008, 02:52 PM

That's the reason why the dollar is YoYoing so much... people keep buying in and selling out as it goes up and down.

I think we'll level out at 2/3 of the USD sadly.

Robyn · #10 11-10-2008, 08:28 AM

Since we're speculating here's my thoughts - I think its going to drop a little more and come back and settle around the mark Harvey suggests.

My US cheque will be sent out next week, its hard to see past your own profits isn't it?

Robyn

Jeremy · #11 11-10-2008, 09:09 AM

That's right Robyn...

Profits = lifestyle...

hamo · #12 12-10-2008, 06:26 PM

I would love to see us get back to the good ol' days of 55 to 60 cents.

I remember getting my USD affiliate commissions and almost being able to double the amounts.

Bring it on.

apmedia · #13 13-10-2008, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hamo

I would love to see us get back to the good ol' days of 55 to 60 cents.

I remember getting my USD affiliate commissions and almost being able to double the amounts.

Bring it on.

Yeah great attitude hamo, lets #### up the whole economy just so you can earn a few extra dollars from your commission cheques...what a pointy headed response...give me a break!

PS, my 2c worth, I think it will rebound slightly.

hamo · #14 13-10-2008, 07:22 AM

I respect your opinion.

But I would have to ask, would it really be ####ing up the whole economy, or would it be getting back to where it "should" have been before the stock and property bubbles?

where "should" it be at any point in time..... Um exactly where it is.

But maybe I am just being pointy headed???

leadegroot · #15 13-10-2008, 11:19 AM

I don't think it should be anywhere that low - we have a very strong economy our GDP is high and the government has run in surplus for ages now. I thought up around $1.00 was the right sort of figure.
Yet, compared to the USD we are poor? When you look at their trillion dollar debt they maintain and constantly increase?
I don't understand it, but at least I get something out of it.